cooper basin drilling commences , page-4

Best case scenario?

Very basically it depends on what NPV value of oil you place on decovered reserves in the Cooper and how much of the value the market reflects in the shareprice.

P50 recoverable reserves at Emily are around 10.5mmbo in three different formations. Best case scenario is that all three come in at P50 numbers.
Assuming the WSP farmin is executed leaving ADX with 39.9% of the permit.
ADX's share = 10.5mmbo x 39.9% = 4.2mmbo
NPV value per barrel at say $25:
ADX's share = 4.2mmbo x $25m = $105m

Assuming on a duster the company has a residual value of 10cps then a strike would value the company at $1.005/share fully diluted.

Of course that assumes that the market reflects all of the value immediately, which is unlikely, however you would no doubt see a good portion of that value upon success.

[and if you want a number to reflect the best, best scenario - use the P10 numbers of 21.5mmbo recoverable - this results in a value of $1.73/share! - real longshot though]

Coaster