Based on a Motley Fool article prior to the recent downgrade, the profits out of the 1.3 billion pipeline for FY14 was 64 million. If we add the 800 mill and 40 mill contracts won since, we get another 42 mill in profits (5%).
If the 64 mill is a write off, then applying say a 5 PER, for the 42 mill we get a MC of about 200 mill which is double current MC. I think there is still value in this. Since they are now in the US market, they dont have to rely on the aussie sector which is in decline. Its also good to have them aligned to the one big project with funding guaranteed so no risk of that getting abandoned anytime. I am guessing they should be able to give positive guidance beyond the Dec qtr.
Only problem is their total debt is way above their projected income based on order pipeline. However, it is manageable with a long term view.
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