What I was saying is you're way off the mark on the 7 billion barrels. It is actually 1.61b, which is substantially less. I wouldn't go as far as saying PVD would be valued more than a JKA/TPT combined entity, because they'd be two rather different entities in the fact one has proven resources and some low/high risk upside vs the others having a completely high risk portfolio of big assets. Don't forget PVDs Moroccan target is unproven for a petroleum system so is much higher risk. While their NET take is 3x that of TPT's (ignoring the other 2 zones) they also have even more risk as they have not proven the source rock to be a hydrocarbon producer. For all they know it is the shallower rock that is producing those DHI's.
I also think you should be aware that TPT has other deeper targets that can provide some very large estimates, but this was never completed for whatever reason (perhaps it was too costly to dive into more processing, who knows). They also have the two Zeus' leads which never got numbers put on them, but it looked to be quite large from the reports I read (once again no numbers given). There is definitely room for resource upgrades in a big way if they do strike oil and can get the cash to do more processing.
I'm not sure how talking about project timelines is a moot point.. I mean we've seen it time and time again with our own eyes that when purely speculative companies like TPT and PVD come into drilling, the SP goes up, sometimes in a big way. For months or even years beforehand you could see the company going sideways and its only when drilling is close that the SP moves. As for proven resources development, this isn't so drastic as its far less risky so value can be given quite a way in advance before production occurs (not 100% but within reason).
As for JPR, they might get some tax breaks to recoup their development costs, but it certainly wouldn't be $40/bbl to the company that is profit and if it is refer back to the tax breaks. All I was pointing out is a barrel of Moroccan oil is worth a heck of a lot more than a barrel of Kazakhstan oil. If they had that 100mmbls in Morocco, you can bet your bottom dollar their SP would be way above what it is now.
Page 4 shows you the breakdown. They state $20m by the end of 2013, but a lot of Sterlings payments for the Odewayne block progression will happen in 2014, providing a further $12m (minus $2m debt if the takeover goes ahead).
Currently JKA have almost no cash (if you ignore the TPT loan) but do have $12m coming in over the next year (maybe 1.5 at the longest). Whilst this cash is no good now as its not redily available to be spent on upcoming short term commitments, I'd still value it at $12m because its cash.. Can't really devalue it! So, with a MC of $30m, it puts JKA's assets at a mere $18m which is ludicrous. I think the fear of a CR is what's held the price down and I believe this T/O will rule that out all together. Of course this will dilute holders, but at least they'll be fully funded and have a shot at a large target in country which is touted as one of the best in the world for the governments take.
TPT Price at posting:
22.5¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
