off we go, page-18

No matter how good the chances are at U3 nothing is certain in O&G and there is always a gamble even on a "slam dunk" drill. It's not a "random gamble" but it's a complex engineering process and things happen essentially (for the purposes of investment as opposed to the deterministic physics sense) randomly. Need I remind you that Ungani 1 wasn't technically successful and we needed to sidetrack just to log and that we're using a practically unblooded rig?

I don't need to be told how great the reservoir is at Ungani. I'm one of the longest of the longs - ARQ long.. It's not often the drillbit encounters NO resistance in cavernous porosity.
However all this misses the context of the argument and the only point that should have been taken from my post - that a T/A trend can't foresee these events, not that U3 is a horribly risky drill.