Infose, thanks for finishing. In my rush to close HC on Fri I didn't read all but saw that his idea on yield curve wasn't up to scratch so corrected that, and as it was posted on the gold thread went off in a tangent.
The only point I make is that as I'd say that the auctions prices indicate what the secondary market should be.
What happens, at an auction, is the Treasury take a somewhat mid point of the prices offered as to which they are willing to accept, all bonds are issued at that price. Prices offered outside this excepted price are discarded, and the rest of the bonds are given to primary dealers to sell off or keep. If demand at auction is high, price in secondary market is firmed. If auction demand is weak, the secondary market comes off simultaneously. So I believe the auctions lead.
