BGA would be more interesting simply because there will be no more listed Dairy Co's left in Australia. Tying up milk supply will become more desperate.
Fonterra have a strategic alliance with BGA and they will do all they can to protect it, ie, milk supply and contract pack arrangement. Remember Fonterra have already taken a 9.0% stake at $4.89 per share. The bar has already been set.
Then there is MG who failed to win the battle for WCB, and of course Lion Nathan who will want milk supply for their Asian customers.
The number of Dairy Farms in Australia has decreased dramatically since the industry was deregulated. Milk supply will be crucial to any company wanting to grow their business, particularly exports to the Asian region.
The ACCC won't veto a MG/BGA arrangement simply because it will not create a monopoly, nor a duopoly. There will still be at least 4 major players left in the Australian market..
Lactalis, Saputo, MG, Lion Nathan....one of which will takeover BGA.
All IMHO of course.
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