2 days to go, page-13

'The article states there is a 26% chance that lynas will post a negative result'

Some perspective.

Firstly they do not say a negative result - too subjective.

They said the % chance of a negative surprise.

Secondly you then have to say what represents a surprise?

Lets take some numbers (out of thin air) - if the analyst think the sales will be between $100 and $150m, then what they are saying is that there is a 26% chance of the numbers coming in under that minimum. The chance of exceeding the upper number may be much lower when a company has a history of not delivering. Also if the expectation was a negative $20m, the a negative surprise would be below that number.

If the expectation was a profit of $200-$280m and it came in between these numbers then there would be no negative or positive surprise as the numbers would be in line with estimates.

To finish, one would have to have some insight to the estimates and then factor in a 26% of an under achievement if you had confidence in the analyst in question. Without knowing the estimates this is a valueless number.