what is going on?, page-6

aimone

I have found seasonality in the precious metals markets to be fickle at best, gold and silver can rise at any time from here, as they have been in an extended downtrend in both time and price.

If the timeframe is extended out to as far as you predict, we would have to consider that the secular bull market in gold is over.

For a true secular bull market, the bear phases tend to be shorter than bear phases in secular bear markets.

We are now approaching a disturbing level of bearish gold time cycles activity.

As for other commodities, I entered coffee on the long side last week, and will add to it if a get a momentum signal adding confirmation, at the moment only a trendline break to the upside.

I have been short the Dow30 from the highs and will remain short until the overdue correction arrives, at which point I will assess the likelihood of a new bear market emerging.

My risk to the downside in silver is somewhat hedged by my stock shorts, as there is no guarantee that silver will remain robust once stocks sell off, but I may change this at any time.