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i am not accusing the forum of not being balanced, simply pointing out what i think the key risk is , and that is need for capex will drive more dilution and thus the assets will become less valuable as will the income stream. as an example when i invested ( about 2 years ago now i think ) the projects were still the same, the ownership greater and the shares on issue significantly less and cash higher. in the time we have had headlines with words including gusher we i think are a bit too over the top
I trust you will do the number crunching better than most, so if you have a look at opex and NRI of their assets and look at running costs of the overall business you may see what i see. having said that, i am willing to look at anyones numbers that disapproves my thesis that the company will not be cash flow positive for a while and would need more funds. at this level any Crs are so highly dilutive they are very destructive to future SP growth potential
i see the oil price as another risk that can squeeze margins as well as the risk of needing to fund US expenditure in USD with CRs raised from a falling AUD
interested in your thoughts and Shelcomms and other posters who are happy to discuss
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