AZZ 0.00% $7.50 antares energy limited

Ann: Investor Presentation , page-23

  1. 6,536 Posts.
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    Although I would love to have more information on the terms of the deal and who the buyer was, I can only go on what they have announced, which is that "Antares has withdrawn from the sale process" and that "The Board of Directors as a result of now being of the belief that Northern Star is both sustainable and repeatable have concluded that the highest possible returns can be achieved for shareholders through the development of its Permian Assets rather than the proposed sale."

    i.e. selling it for $300m USD is far too low. Given the announcement of the takeover of Aurora just two days later (what timing!), I would have to say I agree with the view.

    I can understand those who may have invested in AZZ with only a short term horizon, looking for AZZ to flip the asset and return some cash would be very disappointed, because now they are left holding onto another set of risks - development and financing risks. On top of that, their short term position would now have to be a longer term one for it to play out. Clearly as we have seen with the SP dropping to 36c, they have acted on this and sold out.

    I have done the opposite and increased my holdings because although the risks have gone up, my view is that the potential payoff has gone up disproportionately higher and I am comfortable holding this for the longer term for it to play out if needed.

    Some details on financing options are detailed in the update on 5 Feb, though it sounds promising it has not been locked in so risks remain.

    I don't think this is a sure bet by any means, but I think the potential risk/reward pay-off is in my favour at these prices. Obviously there are many others that disagree, but I guess that's what makes the market!
 
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Currently unlisted public company.

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