motley fool (us) - get it completely wrong, page-35

Hi

At this stage there is a frustrating lack of data from Prana and they were less than clear in responding to some of the phone questions at the press conference. For example they dismissed the lack of significant results on Trails A because Trails A is less complex than Trails B. However certainly with AD then Trails A is equally if not slightly more predictive of the illness or at least the symptoms of speeded executive function than Trails B.

I thought they also fudged the question about how on the Trails B the significance level at 12 weeks was much higher at 26 weeks. Is this because there is an initial good effect from PBT2 that is then starting to fade at 26 weeks? Is this because of different practice effect over time? Is this because 2 or 3 people were more awake or alert at 12 weeks rather 26 weeks and therefore have skewed the results because of the small group size. I have no idea.

There were 6 or 7 tests administered some like the Stroop also loaded highly on speeded executive functioning. We don’t have any results for these aside from some indications that they were trending positive. How positive we don’t know.

It was highly unlikely that they would get a slew of significant results given the small n in each group. The fact that they got even one is great and to me means they can now go on and do a stage III trial and get some real evidence.

I think the people at Prana want a moment in the sun and they certainly deserve it. Unfortunately it will be some time before we can see the total data. Publications is probably 2 to 6 months away and they may or may not choose to present the full summarized data set at any conferences.
Clearly many people have a poor grasp of statistics and Prana have not helped by failing to highlight how the small n is likely to impact on results and only selecting the :”good “data to present.

Overall good enough in my view to go to Stage III and room for cautious optimism but not quite time to open the champagne.
It is an interesting interaction when science meets the share market.

Regards
Chris