This l8est profit by NBL continues to show the malaise in the mature female spending cycle. This malaise is shared by Just groups similar retailers and genuinely appears cyclical.
Still, this family dominated bus has always made steady money and is beginning to show more responsive management practices on the cost side such as widespread review of leases, something like 30 percent of stores.
No sign of a rerating until perhaps the female mature spending cycle (my personal view is such spending is driven by asset appreciation then liquidation) kicks in.
Still, its a steady earner in a frothy market with a cyclical kick. Management used to pay out almost all earnings as divvies but the absolute writedown of goodwill and continual hoarding of cash is becoming bizarre as management reduces capex spend also and perhaps has much room to squeeze costs. If you do a revenue/cost ratio analysis on Nbl, it looks almost like no other retail business.
Nbl made 6 cents in the half and is paying out 1.5 cents. It sits on a cash pile of 15 mill and a market cap of about 19 mill. Something has to give with this crisis of affluence. I'm aware Nbl cash holdings peak in January traditionally.
A moderate acquisition would likely double earnings overnight. A management buyout could be done by adding no debt to the business!!! They could payout half the current stock price in divvies. They could be just very conservative as its been a while since Nbl fired on all cylinders.What in the world is Nbl up too???
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