Let me reiterate for the uninitiated/Newscorp - $US80/t performance payment for first 1MT. PLUS 5.1% royalty (levied at the Gross Revenue line of course) PLUS production costs of ~$100/t PLUS rail and demurrage (Lyttleton) of ~$35/t PLUS government royalties/mines rescue levies of $5/t = minimum required price for BREAKEVEN is US$231.88/t.
Forget the three extra days sailing time and the carbon tax..
As for CAPEX/t? tack on a few extra $10s in depreciation/ amortisation there if you like.
That is before you begin to subsidise Hamish's coffee and the myriad loss making operations dotted around the country side - another $10/t at 1MTPA???
@$260-270/t first year it might break even. Obviously more profitable after performance payments made (~$12/t LOM instead of the $80/t in year one) but it's a hell of a hurdle, with three dilutive raisings (1x CAPEX, 2x Performance Payments - offtake finance impossible given Pike experience and company track record).
Buller = impossible until price steady above $200/t. (L&M may renegotiate but that will be at the expense of... wait for... current shareholders!)
Can't sell it, can't develop it = sit on it and try and make money off domestic thermal.
Solid have a fire lit under their backsides and can smell blood = they do two things 1. go for Holcim contract directly. and 2. go for Holcim contract indirectly (by outbidding and purchasing the 3rd party coal that Cascade rely on).
Bottom line - L&M screwed Bathurst, Bathurst screwed the unwary shareholders.
7.7c is a cheaper lesson than the letter inviting you to a creditors meeting/the doctors bill when you fall off your chair in six months time after reading that a [INSERT HOT COMMODITY OF THE MONTH] asset has been plonked in Bathurst.
BRL Price at posting:
7.7¢ Sentiment: LT Sell Disclosure: Not Held
