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Ann: Balqis-1 Drilling Update , page-20

  1. niu
    1,638 Posts.
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    A lot of changes happen over time, true, but the fiscal regimes of Philippines and Indonesia are still as they were two years ago - the 40+% vs 15% contractor take comparison is valid.

    The point that was being made is very true - not all barrels of oil are created equal, and a doubling of reserves, if it should happen, does not imply a doubling of value. An economic find in one country or region, may not be economic in another. Galoc is a successful money maker in the Philippines but might not have been worth developing in Indonesia.

    You might however take some consolation that fiscal regimes tend to develop such that contractor take is inversely correlated to historical oil/gas production success within the relevant jurisdiction. And so it is in this case - Indonesia having had a long history of production success, Philippines being only lightly explored. It doesn't change the COS of NDO's drills - it is merely an indicator of historical success in Indonesia.

    Coming back to the point that a doubling of reserves, if it should happen, does not imply a doubling of value. You might also consider the time and expense that goes from turning a discovery into reserves, and the investment that goes in to developing those reserves. The value of a barrel changes significantly depending on how far along the path it is from discovery to production.

    A discovery and doubling of reserves would nevertheless be welcomed by all around these threads...
 
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