Ann: Half-Year Report - 31/12/13 , page-4

The earnings looked ugly. Looks like most of the gain was from a one off upward revaluation of onerous contracts. Brutal trading conditions as they say.

Strangely, the longer term future looks bright: McGuigan Black Label sales up 29%. They are really building a brand here and looks like they took sales from TWE.

But the two things that really could move this stock seem to be the outlook for lower AUD and more importantly the rumors that the new government is going to ax the Wine Equalisation Tax. If that happens in the new budget then that will kill off all the unprofitable welfare wineries that are uneconomic and exist to produce cheap wine at a loss in order to claim the tax rebate. If these guys shut down and push more grape growers to pull up vines then the glut will be gone and margins can greatly improve.

That is my understanding of how the WET is negatively impacting AVG. I am not Australian so only know this from reading on the internet and know almost nothing of Australian politics. Can anyone comment on this?