AFR reporting buying interest in TPIs NZ assets at +A$900m. Whilst looks high to me, earnings growth in NZ has been extraordinary in the last 2 years and will continue to be very strong as economic activity improves and Christchurch rebuild continues. After deducting transactions costs & taxes TPI probably left with ~$750m. Most brokers forecasting FY14F net debt of ~$950m (including the $250m in hybrids) .... so TPI likely to be left with sub $200m in net debt post NZ sale, and a business generating EBITDA (ex NZ) of ~$300m. On this basis, the 9-10x EBITDA transaction multiples being paid for these type of assets, suggests TPI (ex NZ) is worth +$2.5bn or +1.50/share. Camden's deleveraging story looks like it might be playing out as per his script ... can we please bring back the great man (or lady)!!
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