biotechnology is a booming industry

I found this pdf when I was looking for something on Lawrence Gozlan, who was just made a board member at Phosphagenics, there is some interesting insight in ths article, what they are saying is also very much applicable to Calzada IMHO



http://www.cadencecapital.com.au/sites/default/files/news/brw-outside-the-square.pdf

Lawrence Gozlan at Scientia Capital is such
an investor. He searches for companies with the
right mixture of strong management, good drug
technology and patent protection.
Biotechnology is a booming industry. The
ageing of the baby boomer generation and the
lengthening of life expectancy, especially in the
western world, are creating intense demand for new and powerful drugs. “Globally, the over-
60 population is expected to rise from about
600 million in 2006 [equal to 10 per cent of the
world’s population] to close to two billion by
2050 – likely more than 20 per cent of the total,”
Gozlan says. “In the US, the proportion of senior
citizens to the entire population is expected to
rise from 13 per cent to over 21 per cent by 2030.
Although Americans 65 and older account for
only 13 per cent of the nation’s total population,
they consume an estimated 33 per cent of all US
pharmaceutical output.”
Gozlan does not invest in new medical devices or
technologies, instead concentrating on therapeutic
companies that can charge high prices for their
treatment without pressure to reduce those prices
because no one else can replicate the drug. He likes
to invest in biotech companies that are worth less
than $500 million because they are often below the
radars of larger investors and funds managers.

This was also in the article.





If Siegling finds a company that looks incredibly
cheap on fundamental analysis (cash flows, profit
and forward earnings), but the price trend is
downward – perhaps the stock has been falling for
a year – he will not buy a single share. He knows
the company is fundamentally cheap, but refuses
to buy into a falling share price. This is counter to
the methods of value investors, who would take advantage of the weaker share price.
But Siegling will not buy into the company
(following the fundamental research) until the
share price has stopped falling and begins a
turnaround. “I believe that there is no sense, no
matter how compelling our fundamental beliefs
may be, in buying into a stock as it is falling
in value. I believe that the words ‘contrarian
investor’ are often used out of context, and that
a contrarian strategy of constantly buying and
adding to a falling position and constantly selling
or shorting a rising market leads an inexperienced
investor into making costly mistakes.”
Siegling places great importance on the logic of
crowds. If the stockmarket, which is made up of
millions of investors making millions of decisions
every day, is selling down a company then that is
right and proper and should not be second-guessed
or doubted. “The market can be irrational and sell
down a stock for no real reason – no reason based
on the fundamentals of the business,” he says.
“But it’s not for us to say when the market will stop
being irrational. [Our job] is to do the fundamental
research and wait for the share-price trend to show
us that the market has stopped being irrational
and that our research is potentially correct.’’
When Siegling is building a position in a
company and buying up shares, he will not buy
below the last price he has paid for a parcel of
stock. “I will buy shares at, for example, $1, then
$1.10, and then $1.12, but if I have just paid $1.12
for a stock I will not then pay $1.10 if the price falls
a few days later. That’s because I like buying shares
that are going up. So why would I buy shares at a
lower price than previously paid?’’ This goes against
what most investors believe to be the logical, wise
way to invest. Why not take advantage of a short-
term retreat in a share price to average down your
overall cost? But Siegling remains completely loyal
to his rule and does not waver – ever.
His approach sounds illogical, even
counterintuitive, but it works incredibly well.
For the six months to December 31 last year,
Cadence Capital posted a 1470 per cent increase
in net profit after tax to $3.184 million.
The gross performance of Cadence’s portfolio of
Australian shares for the half year was an increase
of 32.26 per cent, easily beating the broader
stockmarket. In only 15 months since its inception,
the fund recorded a gross increase of 75.98 per
cent, at the same time holding an average cash
position of 20 per cent across the portfolio