the dfs - expectations

Considering the DFS is due in the next few weeks I thought it would be good to start a thread about what's expected.

Firstly, a look at the PFS as a baseline reference.

Since the PFS there has been a significant increase in the resources in the measured and indicated categories. This should have a major effect on the mine life used in the DFS.

The target mentioned in a company presentation last year was 10 years at a 1 Mtpa run rate. I think this will be the value used in the DFS but it does appear conservative given the resource is currently 15Mt.

I'm assuming there hasn't been a major change in tin recovery but a decrease in mined ore tin grade to 0.85%-0.90%. Likely there has been a ~10% increase in capital expenditure since 2012.

Here are the PFS NPV results.

Here are Kasbah's estimated figures on NPV using the PFS economic model from presentation in Feb 2013.

The base case 90-day average LME tin price come the end of this month will be ~$23,000/t. From the next slide of the presentation the sensitivity to the tin price is about 30M/$1,000 movement.

That places the NPV at approximately US$180M on the old model. Given the early cash flow from the open pit resources there should be a good bump to that figure to ~US$200M.

http://www.kasbahresources.com/images/broker_news/745_20131107_Canaccord%20Genuity.pdf

I note that the latest broker presentation on the Kasbah homepage has 'future cash from Toyota' forecast at A$1.9M. Given the figure is calculated as 1.2% of the NPV that puts the Cannacord expected NPV at approximately $140M US.

They have also assumed a tin price of $22,000 into the next 2 years which is far below everything I've read. Most research seems to be suggesting $25,000/t in the next few years with potential major upside if supply continues to struggle. I've also read that a price of $30,000/t is required to incentivise new production to come online.

Interested to hear the thoughts of others.

Cheers