share price, page-47

Hi Cabmerlo, if there is competition (if I didn't believe in it I would have sold every share let alone buying many times more) you will see that ultimately in the value realized by share holders in either a JV deal or a 100 asset equity deal (a prelude to a change-of-control-event).

(IMO) you need not wait too long.

I tend to look for obvious clues and ask the most pertinent questions of all : Why are we where we are ?

1) Why China already pocketed the "speaking right" with just 48 hours to come up with the CDB term sheet (so we thought) now has to undergo an exhaustive open tender process with the NDRC wanting to acquire that same SAY via a stated mission of asset acquisition backed with special state FUNDING.

2) Why (Congo & Cameroon screaming out loud for expedition of development after wasting the best part of a year in FIRB/ASIC probe) suddenly decided to exhaust another 1.5 years to hold an interantional tender if this were a China only deal.

3) Would the Africans be so dumb as to be convinced to relinquish the Chinese exclusivity if the competition is not financially formidable or politically influential (providing ample evidence of financial firepower and committment to develop the project).

4) Would the Chinese have gratuitously valued Simandou (via a publicly announced INTERNAL SOE transaction) at $7.2 Billion (then labelling it as cheap - extremely UN-Chinese behaviour would be a huge understatement) - bear in mind this is NOT that extraordinary sum when you compare with other IO deals done or in progress - Simandou North (Vale), Tonkolili (PRC), IOC (RIO), Jimblebar (Itochu, Mitsui) and Wologisi (Indian, PRC).

5) While I don't know exactly who the competitions are (I am not ruling out an Indian consortium or a multi-group European or Western bid - clue are found in the ASX released SDL presentation of early-mid 2013 of the IBs commissioned and the geograhic coverage). The Camerooneans themselves once suggested Canadian interests. Is Vale's market shocker part of the bid ? Dunno.

(IMO) The Chinese surely whose who they are as far back as late 2012. The competition (one or more caused China's loss of exclusivity) would find the Liu Han story amusing.