I have posted my perspective on the difficulties and risks associated with trying to finance the debt for this project and my opinion is line with the conclusions of the Standard Bank. Vertical integration is the key, meaning a winner take all outcome.
SDL does not have the luxury of time or money that Gina did, it is weighed down by loans from Noble and Hanlong that need repaying. It has considerable financial commitments to its tenements in Africa. It has high corporate overheads and of course the costs involved in trying to arrange a deal of this magnitude are also heavy.
I have outlined my arguments as to why I believe there is no competitive tension from Europe and unless India are indeed involved, then China is the only hope for a deal.
In my opinion the chance of SDL arriving at a fully funded solution for the project is far far less than 50%.
My sentiment on this stock is HOLD as I believe even if the company can't stitch the whole deal together, it will find some sort of way of dressing up a NON BINDING arrangement of some sort with financiers that will breathe a bit of life into the stock.
If this dressed up deal is kept as good a secret from the market as the Noble deal was, there will be plenty of time to jump into this stock, as the market will give you the sign.
There are enough rusted on believer and stock holders with confused messages swilling around in their heads (thanks to this forum)that any vaguely positive news will send the stock price up. I might even consider trading this brief rally if it happens.
I'm not preaching here to the converted, only to the gamblers here amongst you. For that is all SDL is at the moment.
SilentO
This is not investment advice only my personal opinion. Please seek professional advice before making any investment decision that you may be unsure about.
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