" no one is going to risk a war over Ukraine, fact is if Putin doesn't move further into Ukraine he and Russia will come out of this looking rather rosy despite the "sanctions" which will be lifted in time."
Couldn't agree more, Ukraine will fight back but to what level is questionable, no doubt Ukraine Army is patriotic and brave, but against vast superior numbers and modern artillery they won't be able to hold off the Russians for very long if at all, would likely be all over in days instead of weeks.
When Russia invaded Georgia that didn't go so well (took longer than it should of) because Russia Army couldn't communicate with Air Force, and land forces didn't have night vision equipment so couldn't operate at night. Both those gaps have since been filled.
Other than Putin gaining from Ukraine, I'd also like to add western armament producers will also do very well, as European countries rearm to counter Russia as number one threat again.
Of course most of that armament will come from US. It's not only a few hard line Russians who long for a return of the Cold War and Russia as world superpower and threat to the west.
Personally I think the annex of Crimea signaled the start of a new chapter in Russia/Western relations and start of a new era and new Cold War.
Also going to be interesting to see if there is a change in Russia/China relations, if Russia does invade Ukraine.
US Invasion of Iraq and Syria Red Line were both huge mistakes, looks like those chickens have come home to roost.
