"An NPV on 50 wells is silly - those wells haven't been drilled so the net is $0. But to take HK at face value, its about $4M per well - so $200M and I think the inference is AKK's 30% is worth $60M??"
It doesn't matter if they haven't been drilled. Once 4 horizontals are in and producing, then we will know, well costs, decline curves, EUR and possble down spacing.
We will also have reserves upgrade and estimates, and more accurate IRR, which can be then forecast across the whole project given shales so much more homogenous
This is all after the 18 month farm-in program.
You can do a NPV on that, its done all the time by brokers. You need one, as you need to account for the timeframe to complete all possible wells.
How else would you value the future potential of total?
that's how its done.
AKK Price at posting:
1.2¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held