After the positive lead from the US last night, plus the positive news that I had read, I was very surprised to see the XJO open down this morning, and continue down for the first 2 hours, but to recover in the latter half of the day. There must have been something in the air that I was not across … how come nobody warned me?
Prior to the XJO being in the red this morning I had 4 or 5 new long trades in mind, but in the end I only opened two new long trades as described further below.
FMG, yes Yurt, I am long in FMG yet again, with my most recent trade opened yesterday. At least FMG was green today on a red day on the XJO. If the XJO was not down this morning, then I expect that we would have seen stellar gains from FMG today. Maybe tomorrow. The April iron ore contract price is up from 114.62 yesterday to 117.62 today, and the May contract price is 115.75, which is also up from yesterday, as shown here.
BDR, as Gold was smashed yet again last night I closed my BDR long this morning for a small profit, just enough to cover the broker fees and buy a few slabs for the barby. Hence, I will have to leave you with this one Yurt, but thanks for bringing my attention to it earlier.
Gold got down to 1280, now about 1288. I thought that stops would get hit at about the 1280 level, maybe it needs to be a bit lower than that. However, if the pog does have a sharp move down, then there will probably be buying opportunities in BDR, MML, and NCM for the bounce back … but only for the gamblers amongst us.
BHP, opened a new long trade this morning. Red at first, but then had a good run in the afternoon. Reasonably safe trade imo, and with a target of 3950.
RIO, once again, surprisingly only up a little today, but at least it is still going in the right direction.
TLS, opened a new long trade this morning, flat at the moment. Why TLS? Because:
The chart seems reasonably reliable for range trading lately.
The target of 530 will only give me 5% profit, but the downside seems quite safe with a well defined range bottom of 490 to 500. With a potential loss of say 7.5c and a potential gain of 25c, the profit to loss ratio is roughly 3:1.
The TLS chart is responding well to my favourite ATR buy signal indicator, and an ATR buy signal was generated yesterday.
The dividend is done and dusted. Hence, no ex-div dates in the near future. In addition, the recent swings up have not been tied to the ex-div dates. The recent swings up started on roughly 10-Oct-2013, 17-Dec-203, 20-Feb-2014, and 31-Mar-2014, all with an ATR buy signal.
Perhaps TLS will become one of my reliable range traders to join BHP and others.
Note that although at the moment TLS has an ATR buy signal, the MACD has crossed, and the SP has crossed up through EMA10, the RSI14 has not been below 30 and back, but the RSI14 is trending up at the moment. This is the beauty of the ATR buy signal, it can get me on to profitable long trades that I might otherwise have missed.
Anybody have an opinion on TLS as I have not traded it before?
A few points to note.
I have a few more long trades in mind, but we will see what happens tonight first.
Not planning to average up on my existing long trades as I already have a reasonably large volume on all three long trades.
I haven’t taken out any insurance trades against my long trades this time. Last time the insurance short trades helped to smooth out the rough bits during the long trade holding period, but ultimately resulted in marginally reduced profit on the total package.
