(All figs NZ$) What these guys are doing as a business is amazing. The problem is that the share price is reflecting expectations which are even more amazing and assured success. Life is not like that. The customer numbers are very good with just shy of 43,600 customers added over the quarter BUT the big growth over the year is in Australia where they generate far greater revenue per customer than anywhere else. That's not going to continue with the fightback by MYOB and Reckon. As a guide the ANNUALISED revenue from Australia equates to $376/customer versus $284 in NZ; the 2014 yearly equivs are approximately $346 and $265 respectively. That $80-$100 gap will get competed away, and is also some $80 above the UK equivalent or US. That's NOT high multiple stuff. The interesting sign is the decline in rev per customer - partly pricing and partly the NZ$, and that is a path which is going to continue IMHO. So in the next couple of quarters you need to see average 55k/quarter customer adds to offset the likely decline in rev/customer. Cash burn is $11m over the quarter so roughly comparable with Q3. Great though they are, these numbers are NOT going to re-kick start the share price because it is still in outer space relative to where these guys can go in the foreseeable future - plus the short sellers have got it by the proverbials at present. I also sense a greater degree of desperation in the press releases to stem the share price decline - fallen 9 of ten days to day from A$41.50 to $34.50.
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$145.32 |
Change
-0.700(0.48%) |
Mkt cap ! $22.19B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$144.38 | $146.05 | $143.19 | $38.70M | 267.1K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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2 | 668 | $145.15 |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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$145.34 | 910 | 1 |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 538 | 145.040 |
2 | 364 | 144.930 |
1 | 1237 | 144.720 |
1 | 2670 | 144.650 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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145.340 | 910 | 1 |
145.630 | 93 | 1 |
145.740 | 59 | 1 |
146.080 | 500 | 1 |
146.100 | 100 | 1 |
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