I think it is a bit rough to call the T-Vec phase III trial a failure. They hit their primary endpoint of durable response, and "failed" a secondary endpoint of overall survival with a p value of 0.051. Science can be so cruel. But really, anybody who understands a bit about statistics and p values will not see that as a failure.
The good news for VLA is that most melanoma patients will fire more than one bullet - we've already seen at least one example in the CALM trial of a patient that T-Vec didn't work for, but CAVATAK did.
I still think the race is to be the first, or one of the first "bullets" that are fired against melanoma. The recent news that got me really excited is that it looks like it will only take a few weeks after initial dosing of CAVATAK to know to a high degree of probability whether it will work. Along with high tolerability & safety makes me confident CAVATAK can take a leading role. Combination therapy appears very promising, that will help too.
I've gotten over my pessimism about whether I'll make money from VLA.
Good luck all!
VLA Price at posting:
31.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
