Some very good points and background knowledge on this thread - always makes a thread more valuable.
If there were no problems - there would likely be no opportunity in API. The trick is weighing this all up obviously. I can't see that the guarantees are anything to worry more about now than previously - they seem to be factored in, and the credit metrics seem acceptable to me, with the business trading at arguably 9x forecast underlying earnings.
API Price at posting:
55.7¢ Sentiment: ST Buy Disclosure: Held