I hear what your saying but all depends on how much (and if) they find ... Most oil/gas company wells target modest structures in terms of P50 prospective resource in 10's millions of BOE... Far is targeting "elephants" ie Fan 1 possible 0.9 Bill BOE for a start.
How strong the price response is depends on how much oil/gas is found... if at the upper end the price of the stock could gap up very strongly 100-200%+ initially so many will position themselves prior to the result being known to gain exposure to a move like that. Conversely, If its a duster then the price could fall upto 50% or more... However given there are several wells being drilled it is likely it will not fall this far.
Now assuming they find some thing big and if the stock gaps up strongly and enters a solid uptrend thereafter the gain for those early adopters is a level of magnitude above those getting in after the result is known.
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