The bottom? More like a small correction on the way I'd say.
This company is doomed.
Here's why I strongly believe why: - The level of corruption which AWB has been involved in has become so great that the government can't and WONT be seen to be supporting the single desk anymore. This is absolutely becoming crystal clear to me now. - Also, the government are well aware by now that there is no point in maintaining the single desk, due to the damaged reputation of AWB overseas. This will mean that maintaining the single desk is counter productive to the nation's interest because it affects the sale of wheat by Australian farmers. If you don't believe me then read what overseas news sites (and not just the US or other wheat competitors) are saying about AWB! - Beyond that, there are enough damning reasons coming out of this inquiry for US Wheat Associates to get the US FDA to permanently ban any association with AWB. Once again, this is counter productive to our nation's interest as it will lose our farmers valuable markets. - There are a few signs starting to show of illegal contracts (under Aust. law) with outright disguised bribes being payed in Pakistan. This will start to implicate AWB employees and Management as criminals. Once again, the govt will not be seen to be supporting a single desk ran by criminals. - The AWB have admitted to telling fibs to the UN to allow the contracts to be part of oil for food program. Expect the UN to take action against AWB where they can now, and that will damage wheat sales through AWB, and once again hurt innocent Australian farmers, and therefore once again would be counter productive to AWB's single desk being in the national interest. - What else? Credit ratings agencies are talking about downgrades and funds managers are setting targets for dumping AWB at the moment. - AWB's share price will be smashed if (when) they lose the single desk, because AWB's reputation will be so smeared overseas that nobody will be able to sell wheat through AWB. - Finally, AWB have been abusing their veto powers to stop competitors from selling wheat overseas. That doesn't look good if it is seen to be supported by the government, and now in the advent of this inquiry these competitors will have the ammunition to kick and scream for the removal of the single desk.
It's almost going to be a $3 share in the end I'd say! Well ... I think that's about it for now.
AWB Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held