Today will be difficult to pick for MML. Gold off $4 in US. Gold stocks overseas corrected 1.8%-3.4% on the HUI, GDX and GDXJ - after stronger gains the previous night. MML will probably start a little lower on the back of that but didn't gain anywhere near as much as the GDXJ the night before so might not correct much today either.
Also, after last night, the HUI and GDX are sitting comfortably above their March lows and GDXJ is just above its March lows. The March low for MML was $1.975 so MML still has some catch up to get in line with overseas gains this month.
A strong dip in the AUD overnight might provide support our gold sector today. Too early to call the next leg down in the AUD but with risk off in the higher risk momentum stocks, the AUD might have ended its run as well. NCM was very strong yesterday and strongly outperformed its overseas peers. Not sure if that was due to an expected top in the AUD or further buying after its qtrly results a week ago.
Also we have the qtrly due by tomorrow for MML so there is no telling how the stock will behave today and tomorrow ahead of that. I won't be surprised to see outperformance ahead of the qtrly but that's guesswork. A number of qtrly's being released this morning may provide either a positive or negative bias for our gold sector today. As long as gold trades between $1200-$1300 I see this stock as being worth somewhere around $4 for a forward PE of around 8 (still on the low end of the range for the sector) based on consensus forecasts as posted yesterday. A lot of brokers forecast earnings are based on a gold price of around $1180-1200 so their consensus PE of 4 will prove too conservative if POG remains closer to $1300 rather than $1200 or less. That leaves upside to a $4 sp for a broker consensus PE of 8 if gold just holds around current levels. I think we could see gold trading between 1300-1500 over the next year.
So based on consensus broker forecasts and for a PE of around 8, if we see gold average $1200 then MML would need to trade around $4
At $1300 perhaps around $4.50 for MML.
At $1400 perhaps around $5-6 for a PE of 8.
All in good time but the trend should be strongly up over the next year with obvious volatility depending on the gold price swings.
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