First some additional fluff to that mentioned earlier today.
-'overwhelming response from clinicians at every level.'
-'strong IP protection.
To the point. I've queried 19 women during the past week, quickly learning tact ('do you p_ss your pants' to 'can you take a look at this product I've invested in). The result is I'm very confident a 1% target will be met easily by the more acute and chronic cases in the target market, plus there is a range of reasons others will use it also. (so I feel comfortable that the take-up will be 5-10% without being overly bullish or bearish.
I then did some rough (fluffy) calcs. Given low manufacturing, sales and overhead costs I think it's reasonable to assume a NPAT of 20% and apply that to a p/e of 20 (typical of this sector).
So, in Australia, 1% gives me a sp of 5c; 5%=25c; 10%=50c.
Total target market, 1% = $1.95; 5%=9.75. (Hope I haven't fluffed my fluffy maths)
I'll pull this out of the bottom drawer in 4 years and retire with a fluffy annual dividend.
It's a good thing the product isn't for anal itching, else today the topic would have been 'BUM FLUFF'.
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