announcement out, page-64

speculator101, your replies are much appreciated. Likewise, I can't help but continue to reply when the topic of sub-salt Amadeus is brought up. What we have with Mt Kitty are now 2/2 wells sub-salt that have discovered helium and gas which it flowed to the surface. The first of course being Magee back in '92, which had 6.3% Helium as well as methane and condensate (but was also probably drilled off structure in a local high with only 4m pay, and thus not such a good proof-of-concept as Mt K could be). Our beloved Mt Kitty is only 130km away, and the poor test results we have show that there is potentially even higher amounts of helium. Because of Magee, I believe we can say with some confidence that >6% helium at Mt Kitty is indeed likely. And as CTP just said in the report this topic refers to, most helium fields are economic at 2-3%. What's more is that we can say that two wells drilled sub-salt have 100% of the time discovered high percentages of helium. Ding ding ding!

I think that needs to be said again. Two wells have been drilled beneath the salt in the Amadeus basin. Both have found high percentages and high volumes of helium which flowed to the surface. Would I be going out on a limb to say that anything sub-salt in the Amadeus is now a potential helium field? The basin is riddled with lots of big salt structures to drill. This has the makings of world class helium province of the likes of the east siberian craton. And Santos has got to know this by now.

If Mt Kitty can be made economic (by horizontal drilling, probably), then the next logical exploration step would be to drill lots and lots of wells targeting the many salt highs across the whole basin to find other Mt Kittys.

CTP can't afford to do this even if Mt K is economic. A long and inconsistent history with drilling means the market doesn't trust them with their money. Exit JH, enter RC. The "new" board kind of gets it, and so is gearing up for the long game of partnerships and strategy and acting as though they were already a big company. However, they also kind of don't get it, because we have an MD who is more obsessed with the whims of the greens of carlton, and planning infrastructure for fields he doesn't have, than with actual drilling and development. One year in and they have drilled exactly 0 wells of their own planning! Why? Because CTP can't cope with all this. It's too much for them. And that is why they need the deep-pockets international, who have legions of PR to smooth over the greens, politicians, and traditional owners, while simultaneously committing teams of development geologists to unlocking the Amadeus.

There is a great window of opportunity here for the well positioned major, with STO being the best position and I believe they are just waiting on a definitive answer from Mt K before they pounce. This is the decade of big, high cap projects in Australia. Gorgon, Wheatstone, Icthys... etc... and we have the Amadeus. Onshore, waaay cheaper to develop, but similarly huge. Right next to STO-operated fields, and they already know the Amadeus well. Santos would be mad not to run with this, and to do it quickly, if Mt K can be made economic. And in all the excitement of an economic Mt K, they would probably need only the slightest nudge to jump in and take over CTP, or otherwise render them fully compliant.