what could go wrong?, page-110

Neo . Not negative , not downramping but logical thinking and capital protection. Your thinking could be related to the very soft buying that is happening as we come to data lock. Will be very interesting to see the reaction in trading at data lock until the few weeks later with the preliminary numbers. As I have mentioned before my plan was to lighten going into a price rise coming up to data lock but that hasn't happened for various reasons . Was going to be light by now and sit on the fence with my cash ammo preserved waiting for results. If you were a insto you would happily pay up later on a good result than as you have put above punt on a coin flip. Be very interested on what Due diligence HH and of course the seller to them had done?. Instos also have the ability to be involved in a discounted raising either way later - arggghhh.

Very hard to value when you can't assess the risks.

In regards to the length of time until we get data lock it is a feel good and on averages it might appear the remaining patients are on HA-I and they may be but a remaining few patients would have to live for a very extended period to change the main body of stats . The tail doesn't wag the dog with stats. To have people on the standard treatment doing so well would be most unusual from everything I have read.

A lot of the failed oncology trials don't get to this stage but odds still aren't great.

It also comes down to what value is the PFS extension worth and add the value of other cancers and underlying technology. A lot of punters will know it will take time to mature or lic and they will get 2nd bites at it with other cancers so I can see why they wouldn't want the current risk.


The other upside is we now have some heavy hitter management and if they don't have other trials ready to go once they see the unblinded data and also start locking in partners whom they must have been in contact with all along. Sitting on the fence might miss a few quickfire announcements that lock in fees and trials and push ACL to a higher level so lows won't be seen again. The validation of the platform of delivery is a massive value add on a world scale and we should reflect real company value on world scale quickly not this little aussie valuation we are at now.