only $20 aud away on pog

Well she is priced for mega growth the old NCM dot com

21 plus PE forward estimates
Debt to equity of apprx 58PC and rising (4.612BLn/ 7.856Bln)
heaps of reserves

but that will quickly change if gold falls 20 aud from 1364aud, (but im told that's impossible)

whaaaaaaaaaaaaaa?

the SOLE focus of the company if MAXIMISING cashflow per ounce produced, NOT maximising OUNCES produced, its told you a few times but many don't like to listen these days

with that focus in mind, if gold falls 20 AUD

55PC of the assets gets switched off

that means 35 PC approx. of the current forward production disappears

that means that you can expect some seriously overdue writedowns

that means you can say good by to at least
800000* 1344 (last reported costs of lihir production) of cashflow,,,that's a mega number

that leaves you with a company that looks like this

heaps of reserves (mmmm sleep well)
4.6Bln in debt that needs servicing
A company with a production profile of only 1.4M ounces Per annum
(guidance 2.3M oz, less lihir 800K per annum, less 100K for the "new mine" which they have told you will produce 100K LESS than the old mine)
savaged cashflow, no earnings for existing raging bull shareholders
A balance sheet in tatters and a operation that is making tiny EBIT

If that happens,,,,well credit agencies will need to formally act as the metrics they put out last year are all well and truly in the red, despite the actions of the new CEO to reduce costs.)

if that happens,,existing capital will need to get the sandman to either call the banks and rack up more debt and future interest bills, kissing any chance of a div good by in the next few years,,,or,,,

or,,existing capital can dig into their pockets big time to recapitalise the company by paying off all of its debts, so that it can withstand the realities of the market and maybe return to paying a div of a cent.......

NCM the DOt COm darling operating in the Gold space...............watch them dive for the exists and hit the forum with abuse.......

Hopefully you didn't follow the cheer squad with all their experience and ideas about why its a bargain......



already aware of the falls in its cashflow and profitability is beyond me