AGO biggest error is promising infrastructure solutions which the vast majority think are unattainable. This in turn affects their proposed expansion to Horizon 2, since it makes their proposed output unachievable.
Expansion is seen as a way of earning more cashflow which it would do based on volume, but modelling shows a shift from truck to rail haulage offers a fairly modest fall in unit costs.
AGO needs to consider how it would adapt to a new market paradigm if / when increased supply further reduces its margins. It is a high cost, low-medium quality producer, and it hasn't got many options other than to consider smaller output, higher grades, and a reduced resource/reserve inventory. Which is all at odds with its public narrative.
AGO Price at posting:
66.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
