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18/06/14
10:26
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Originally posted by Knackered
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bignote,
Bignote, I used the following data to get a similar result:
Period 1/7/14 to 30/6/15
No drilling, declining flow rates
NRI MBOE / day currently around 2000 and decreasing to about 1750 in 12 months time assuming no further wells drilled .
Oil ratio: 66%
Barrels of oil per month currently around 40,000 decreasing to about 35,000 in 12 months time (assuming no further wells drilled).
Net has per month currently around 4,000 Bcf decreasing to about 3,500 Bcf in 12 months time
Avg oil price of $100/ barrel (including hedging). So revenue from oil ~ $44M for 12 months
Avg gas price $4.40 / Mcf. Revenue from gas ~$6M for 12 months
Total revenue ~$50M
Cost of Sales: $10M
Administrative Costs: ~$6M
EBITDA: ~ $34M
Cost of cash: ~ $11M
Cash Flow +$23M
Point is RFE can survive and meet repayments of $100M facility.
However, meeting loan covenant requirements and HBP requirements is another matter. Would be good if Management could give the market an update on those parameters.
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Knackered
cheers mate.
To make it clear, I was in agreement with you.
Are your oil and gas breakdowns estimates or based on co. anns.?
Anyway, main point, it looks roughly as though RFE could pay back the loan in about 4 years. So the question is: |Would Gugga accept that? And would it meet the loan conditions?
here's an interesting link for all:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101764492?__...hoo&doc=101764492%7cCould Iraq change the psy
It makes the point I was trying to make on another RFE post recently. I.e that Iraq may cause a rethink of USA land based oil stocks.