Multi year global copper market

http://www.**promotion blocked**.co...-Multi-Year-Global-Copper-Market-Outlook.html
Really an interesting read!!!! Excellent summary.
Conclusion – junior exploration focused on grade over tonnage will add significant value
Expectations for the copper mining sector suggest there is little value in defining and proving-up low grade-large tonnage copper deposits in the current market, especially where environmental concerns are forefront
Some extracts:
In the current global copper environment, where supplies, excluding secondary production (“scrap”), and first order consumption are largely being driven by single countries, there is upside for investors in well-managed exploration companies who are willing to be patient.
Short Term Price Forecast – caught in the crossfire: On average, copper prices are likely to be range bound throughout 2014 and 2015 before creeping higher.
Long Term Outlook – exploration to benefit from mining sectors Capex cannibalisation: Copper supplies are likely to exceed demand in 2014 and 2015; we further expect this situation to persist for 2016 and 2017. This is less than an ideal environment for promoting rising copper prices. However, the economics of copper mining have changed dramatically over the last 11 years
Within the mining sector, the time required to develop Brownfield projects through to production is expected to take roughly 8 years, and Greenfield projects twice as long. Though mined production of copper is set to increase over the next few years, increasing demand and reduced capital investment for exploration and development of new deposits will likely lead to material supply shortfalls around 2020.
The long run trend of falling head grades for copper is an additional concern. Since 2000, average head grades for copper, without adjusting for production weightings, declined from 1.3% to 1.1% in 2012. Furthermore, the weighted average head grade for mined copper is likely less than 1% as several of the world’s largest copper mines have been in production for many decades and are now mining extremely low grade ore (less than or equal to 0.5% Cu). As head grades decline, costs rise for a given tonnage. For low grade mining operations to be economical, scope and/or scale must be sufficient