re: classic kunstler - clusterkfark chronicles
Yep 30 million acres in CRP (set aside) in the US. However it is marginal land anyway and it is the marginal lands around the globe that are getting culled out of grain production. Too risky to gamble on returns with inputs costs so high relative to grains prices. Of course hyperinflation would change that as have high mineral prices have for lower grade mineralisations for just about every metal. Brazil is the only hope but the land that is likely to be cleared for grain production is acidic and aluminium toxic so unsuitable for corn, but amenable to producing beans and wheat (with a heaps of liming - that cost is going through the roof). Eastern Europe is another area for a potential ramp up in production but as with the new lands in Brazil, current economic parameters in grain production mean that noone is willing to invest in infrastructure ... yet! Too many hotspots where money can be placed to work and give relatively easy money.
And yep we will never run out of oil. More relevant issue is how expensive is it going to get? And what is going to happen to the food supply as larger portions effectively go to service stations as opposed to supermarkets. I don't see man coming up with global solution rather I see regional. Those blessed with natural resources surplus to local populations dynamics are best placed. Australia is a shining light there. But then that brings other risks. Anyway it is late! I should be sleeping! Good luck! Will look for your commentary on any of the oilers. Good to have people from industry on board.
