met coal and iron ore the only place to be, page-7

fair enough

but go back and have a look what the indians said demand would be 2007-2014.
yet they were generally non players in driving prices higher.

the notional demand may be real - but between indian's desire to own entire vertical so they can provide intro channel kickbacks - their opportunistic buying approach where they are known to walk away from deals at drop of a hat - - and the long lag between saying something and delivering it - my concern is they wont put enough sharp uplift in the spot price market to reignite the falling price trends.

which is what im looking for as an investor.

people need to get it through their heads - we've just seen a 35% decrease in iron ore price despite a 5% increase in demand.

more demand does not mean higher prices.

price tends to rise where there is increasing numbers of motivated buyers and a period where supply levels either stabilise or are sharply outpaced by demand - to increase bidding tension

and there is huge new low cost met coal supply due to come out of mongolia that threatens to completely upset the applecart. its not coming from US or Aus listed metcoal stocks so its below most radars.

thats the unmapped threat to metcoal prices getting their juju back in my view.

Modhi's mandate might mean the indian behaviours change. But to this point i have to say - ive heard it all several times before.

i do think more generally we are getting close to worm turning point in global demand/supply stalling this endless fall in coal prices though.

you can see some early bidders into whc on that basis. but theyve been wrong a few times.

but thats where the meaningful action will be first - whenever the turn comes.