AL Interview, page-12

Elbow - I take your point, which is fair enough. But if 750t is cash neutral, then the difference between 750 and 916t must be the H/O overheads. Which is about $44M PA.

916 - 750 = 166 * 12 = 1992 at ASP of $22,000  = $44m

To be fair the cashflow poistive number may be lower than 11kt PA, but at worst case she may have actually meant that or thereabouts. In fact worst case could be far worse as this is only another LYC expectation.

When there was robust discussion about the number at the time of the Eric BE statement many folks were convince that overheads were nowhere near this number.

So, taking a line through the numbers there may be about $20 in HO overheads in the next 6 months, plus the losses on the current ramp up for another 6 months. This looks even more interesting from a fiscal point of view. If the Sojitz loan is renegotiated then the interest costs will double in rough terms, which will hurt. Otherwise the $35m will be paid in Sept. Either way the cash reserves by end of Dec are potentially very dire.

Another CR may be coming towards the end of the year unless REE prices escalate rapidly, or they sole the technical issues and put phase 2 into full production.

We live in interesting times!