$50 million for their assets is a vast overestimation imho. What are you basing that assessment on?
- Bendigo is only worth what someone will pay, and if anyone was interested it would have been sold already. Taking into account the possibility of rehabilitation costs above the bonds posted it could well be a liability. To be generous you could put at value of $2-5mil on the equipment.
- Dargues was overpriced when it was acquired, and even more so in the current market. Compare to the recent NST acquisition of the Jundee mine for $82.5 million. That mine produced at an annual rate of 252,000 oz/year in the last quarter at an all-in sustaining cost of $841/oz. Considering it's a producer 5 times the size of Dargues it's hard to value dargues at more than $5-$10 million in cash, maybe $15mil in shares. If you consider development risk and capital costs, it would be difficult to find a project buyer imho.
- Henty is just about mined out, best that can be hoped for is positive cash flow over the next 18mths to cover corporate overheads. It's not a saleable asset so it's purely valued at future cash flow. Generously you could make an allowance for equipment sales and the value of surrounding prospective leases. I'd peg that package at no more than $10mil and probably much less.
- GoldStone holding is really of negligible value.
- Cash was $7.9mil at 31 March 2014 and their burn rate was well over $5mil/qtr. I'd be surprised if they had more than $4mil in the bank currently.
I'd say their assets are worth $10 - $25 million, still falling, and lack a credible pathway to turn into cash. Market cap heading under $10 million seems to agree with me.
Finally, if by some miracle they did have $50mil in the bank after selling the assets and paying debts there's a snowflakes chance in hell of it being returned to shareholders. It would be time to buy a new project and increase director fees for a job well done
