Capitulation has arrived..., page-5

One analyst that noted "blue sky" valuations of around that (but didn't actually value it at that) recently said "the resource isn't going anywhere, it's been there for a hundred million years it can wait another couple".

I don't personally think it's possible to get to that sort of value even with complete and unprecedented success, especially once several farm downs have taken place, but it's silly to think that the potential doesn't exist any more just because it's delayed and in the doldrums and people are realising additional regulatory risk in relation to TO's. The SP is going to lose a lot of the spring in it's step in any return to form as a low period causes LT holders to exit earlier on the way back up (people don't make the same mistake of not taking profits off the table) and vultures picking lows or the beginnings of trends only ride an uptrend so far. So, say they found another 20mmbbl at one of these conventional targets, either in few months on the coast or mid next year, it's unlikely to run like it did on Ungani to close to $4 but to think it won't get it's pep back when they're actually drilling and especially if they have success - which is what those blue sky figures were based on - is a bit silly.

I don't really own any, I don't personally care if it continues down although I'd feel for HC buddies holding it. The lower it goes the better for me buying back into it eventually really. But I'm not going to pretend that the delays have materially changed a future where they get their act together that much. Its entirely plausible that in 2015 or 2016 people have blocked this time period out of their minds like a repressed memory after a success or two. It's entirely plausible they have another delay next year and drill a few dusters. That's the O&G game.