Form 10-K: Dingo Gasfield only 18 Bcf NOT 30 Bcf as reported by CTP!, page-7

Just did a bit of research on the history of Palm Valley and Dingo. Found plenty of useful information in the Magellan 2013 Annual Report (below).

http://content.stockpr.com/magellan...eport/Magellan+2013+Annual+Report+-+FINAL.pdf

Magellan's (and now Central's) gas sale agreements with both Santos and PWC basically covers the 2P (proved plus probable) reserves of Dingo and Palm valley.  The latest CTP company presentation quotes the "reserves" as 53bcf.  However, only 11bcf of these are actually "proved".  Everything else is listed as "probable", including all 29bcf of Dingo.  

Probable reserves have a 50% probability that the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the estimate.  Of course this means there is a 50% probability that they will not exceed the estimate.  Forpeatsake's 18bcf number seems reasonable enough for an old "proved" estimate of Dingo, which should be at least what Dingo can provide.  The Dingo and Palm Valley gas contracts are for "up to" 30 and 23 bcf respectively.  They say nothing about requiring that number.  

CTP spent $35 million to buy Dingo and Palm valley, $20 million of this in cash from a macquarie loan facility.  On top of this the development of Dingo (including the pipeline) is said to cost about $24 million in the latest CTP presentation.  In total, CTP is going to be spending about $44 million of the banks money (and 11% of the share register) to receive "up to" 53bcf of gas contracts.  The bank money has to be paid back with interest, of course.  

Does anyone know what amount of gas, and at what rate, CTP needs to sell to break even on the macquarie loan?