CTP (ASX) The End is Near!

Originally posted by Forpeatsake ↑

The following needs to be said here as it appears to be a good scenario of what will happen:

I don't want to sound like i know everything AS I DO NOT, but i would like to let you know from decades playing this market what i think could quite likely happen here.

The following IMO is how it is all going to end up if the Company doesn't change course NOW, and go exploring for OIL!

If the Company keeps on its road of gas only, then we shareholders are going to get crunched. By that I mean gas revenues from Dingo and Palm Valley are tiny and will offer no relief for what is coming.

A faint crunching noise will occur soon after one of our JV partners finds a big gasfield. What may happen next may surprise you.

After they discover this big gasfield they (eg Santos) will go into high gear to drill it to see how big it is. Tens of millions will be spent quickly in maybe 10 or more wells costing $100M+ or more for tons of infrastructure.

Then the JV partner will come to us with their hands out and say it is now our time to put up our 30% share of all costs (as free carry ended early) especially if it is Santos who is the Operator because our free carry interest will be over quick smart after they get the drill rigs going back to back into a big field.

Then Santos will IMO say we want to accelerate our seismic and drilling program in the "Basin" to find all the big gas fields we can for our Gladstone LNG plant which needs a heap more gas as the NSW Govt stuffed up their plans of getting the much needed gas to supply their long term contracts.

So Santos will say to our Company that we now have to cough up about $20-$30m+ a year to fund our 30% share. CRUNCH!

As it is gas, it would likely take 5-10 years before pipelines are built and fields are commissioned ready to start delivering to GLNG.

The biggest and scariest thing for CTP is we do not know what Santos are really thinking either. They may be happy for us to sit on the discovered fields "until all the eastern States gas is first used up for their Gladstone LNG plant" and position the Amadeus to begin supplying gas down the road some 10-15 years from now when THEY NEED IT!

We cannot expect the banks to lend us much, if anything at all, for exploration as we won't be receiving any gas revenues for up to 15 years and Santos "may not nominate a date for when production is scheduled to start", so the banks won't lend us with no set date for revenues to start.

For Santos they have all the money they need to fund all their share of this and they won't be trying to help us. Quite the contrary. They will be trying to outspend us as quick as possible to the point we cannot fund our share of commitment expenditure. This is normal and happens all the time. Then we have a really big problem and if we cannot find our share of exploration funds then we will be in DEFAULT and our 30% working interest will start to be reduced under the provisions of the Joint Operating Agreement.

If the Company goes to the market to try to raise monies for our share of big yearly exploration dollars, we will be diluted to kingdom come!

The only other choice will be to opt for a free carried working interest or royalty of perhaps only 3-4% early on in return for our 30% working interest.

So if the Company is pressured to go to a smaller free carried working interest or royalty because we are out of money, then Santos would most likely not be interested to take us over holding a small interest!

So at the end of the day, we will have only a small interest left from the original 100% working interest we started out with and we will have a company that could for many years (up to 15 years) see no revenues at all from our big gas fields and a low share price to reflect NO revenues for all that time.

It’s a very bad strategy for this Company and shareholders.

Instead of concentrating on buying the tiny Dingo (very very risky) and Palm Valley gasfields (nearing the ends of field life and will need to be decommissioned for big bucks) and putting us under enormous financial debt and risk at this "critical time" in our company's life, we should be exploring for oil to quickly raise monies in time for the big bills that are coming. Our tiny gasfields will offer no help at all !

After Woodside found so many giant gasfields on the NW Shelf in WA in the 1970's their share price stayed low at up to 60-70c for about 10 years until they FINALLY got into production. Does anybody remember that?

Can you see where this is all going???

Is this the right investment for you?

Expand

Why don't you sell?

While I might agree with you on a lot of points and that is why I am not a holder I can't think of any reason to continue to hold if they are your true beliefs.

So once again why not just sell?

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210909

(20min delay)
Last 4.8¢		Change -0.004(7.69%)		Mkt cap ! $35.52M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
5.0¢	5.0¢	4.8¢	$22.36K	454.9K

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