I see- so my calculations are false, but you cannot even provide a probability range.
And even if I overlook that, I struggle to see any relevance.
Within a year, UOS would have probably sold and collected on over RMB $1.5b worth of properties, and the book value will probably increase another 15%.
These sort of macro prophecies is like a broken clock- it will eventually be right. For your play to work out, you need US rates to start rising next year or two, and for a whole chain of events to occur, in exact concurrence with historical correlations. What if rates start rising 4 years from now?
You are making a huge assumption that these macro events will impact the share price of UOS in any meaningful manner, plus you are also ignoring possible share price action from now until your trigger event. No good watching it go to 80 cents then having your trigger event provide you with a price of 60 cents after payment of two dividends.
Time is the friend of a wonderful business, and time also helps to erase memories of false prophecies.
UOS Price at posting:
53.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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