xjo chart - fib help?, page-2

No, should be drawn from the October low if you are to use them at all....as they don't work.

Take for example the 1987 crash. It bottomed at 777 and peaked at 2722 for a move up of 1945 points.

The fib retracement is 1945 X 0.618 or 1202 points from the high at 2722, making the projected bottom 1520. The actual bottom was 1616 meaning it was out by 6.3% and you would have missed the bottom significantly.

Reason why, you did not include time. The market went up for 263 weeks for a rise of 1945. The vector here is 1994. The 50% retrace is this 1994/2 = 997.

The actually fall had a vector of 1013.... meaning the above was only out by 1.6% in a fall of 40% from its high.