Hi mates (i think i used mates, because all of the other "guys" have been washed out last 48h),
my "over and out for a while" from yesterday has not so much substance, but make a bull fart about this if you want...
With my expieriences about the given timelines from the last years in connection with ADO, i will write down my thoughts of realistic timelines and conclusions from my view.
POC1*
ds hits the nail on the head in one of his todays postings.
There are special differences between POC1(must be a cheeses country in the neighbourhood of mine...
and POC2 (as we all know is BBI).
POC1 in the past and in the future hates it to be depended by another company.
They hesitated for years to accept, that M&G can help them for their POC device.
Joe and his team have demonstrated them, that their POC wont work properly without M&G.
So they start paying ADO for working out a solution.
I would tell it a 50% confidence and a 50% hate about this, from Phillips side, (sorry, we dont know if it is Philips), so from POC1 view.
Now, and you have to understand that this is the only reason for the delay, they give Joe and his team access to the heart of the POC device. It is the main sensor!
So ADO could be in a position, that Philips (aaaarrrghhhh!), sorry i meant POC1, are fully depended on ADO and M&G.
So what could happen:
Scenario1 - Philips (damm!!!,) POC1 wont use M&G anyway, not in the first version and not in the 2nd version and never.
Scenario2 - POC1 (concentration!) wont use M&G in the 1st version but in the 2nd, because 1st version with their own solution doesnt work properly. This would mean, that all other tests of this device would use M&G.
Scenario3 - the POC1 company (now i have it!), wants to make an exclusive using deal wit ADO.
Scenario4 - the clock mates company (my lovely neighbours) are making a take over bid to ADO.
Scenario5 - think what you want or make a brain bull fart!
I myself dont think we will hear something exciting about that company in 2014.
POC 2*
BBI has another position. They like us from the heart and want a partnership work with Anteo Diagnostics and their great Mix & Go!
Unfortunaltely, mother Alere had have some confusing IPO plans, that stopped everything for weeks, in our process with BBI.
As you know, the IPO plan is over now and everybody can concentrate for further work.
BBI is also paying ADO for their work.
Without the interruption of the IPO, ADOs progresses have been much more faster than anybody at BBI thought.
So ADO and BBI are in the last seconds of finishing step 3 from 5 steps.
They want to launch their POC device in 2014.
So we will be informed from time to time about the progresses.
My opinion is, that we could hear the next informations about this just in a few days/week time.
IMO lauch will be in 1st quarter 2015.
Royalities information could be presented in October/November.
China IVD*
isnt relevant in my view and i am not so unhappy with that.
I dont trust in that copy and paste system from China at this stage.
In my view, when the first big deals are done, that would be a better situation.
Future Diagnostics / ebio / Affimetrix*
Seems that only Ebio is progressing cashflow, moderate and slowly raising.
US companies*
Seems several US companies are doing their studies now.
A couple of these could come quickly to an announcement, but this is wishful thinking.
Top 200*
The shareholder base is tight! Very tight!
I follow the Top 200 since years. Sure sometimes have been small changes, but this should have been from personal, tax, or diversificating reasons.
So the freefloat is creating waves and there are some smart guys, using this freefloat clueless impatient shareholder base.
Yesterday was a good example.
A very good announcement, what you can not understand, because you have no clue what this company ecxactly is doing, could be viewed as a bad one.
So i will have a look on a new Top 200 the next days, but i am sure, there has nothing special changed.
Ferghana*
very curious about what is going on with them.
Maybe they or their partners have been involved yesterday?....only speculation!
GC is in very strong and intensive contact with them, it seems.
Maybe we will get a surprise in the next time. Who knows.
Team of Anteo Diagnostics*
Dont know if you followed that seriously.
Brilliant new scientists and specialists have been recruted by GC and Joe in the past few months.
Do you think they left Alere or other big, stabil and good paying companies, to give their future to a company, where the whole shareholder base is wetting their pants because a 15% drop of sp, if they arent sure, they are working for a disruptive and groundbreaking company?!
Market*
This concerns me a little bit.
All the big indizies are struggeling, world economic is not stabil and the theatre in politics, war and other stupid things are not calculatable.
I hope, ADO wont be hit by a meltdown or anything.
Cash / Cashflow*
cashflow positive only with a BBI deal possible in 2014 imo.
Cash situation is brilliant over a three years period.
Future reward for shareholders*
My prediction before of 1$ in 2014 have been stupid words, i see.
I think a good BBI deal, that has to be announced in 2014, if the POC should be launched in 1st quarter of 2015 could see us at 50c on normal market.
Big ones will wake up and the Top 200 will have bigger friends in it then.
Not sure if POC1, the clock mates from cheese country, will be named in the next few months.
This could be a highflyer too.
So 2015 we could see a 1.xx AUD, if e few things go well.
Dividend by 2017 is realistic in this scenario imo.
This all is only my personal view of things and is not an advice for anything.
Not an advice to sell, to hold, to buy, to wet panties, to make a party, to make a bull fart or whatever.
Goold luck to all strong, tight holding longterm investors in this serious and good managed company.
Best Regards from the World Champion,
Mikro
(20min delay)