SP is a bargain, page-23

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Stephen118

851 Posts.

02/08/14

13:01

Post #: 13759113
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Originally posted by journeyman ↑

Orphan period is the best period to get in... all of the reward upside, but the company will typically be as de-risked as it can be without actually going to production. These are the sorts of companies you need to find imo... compare it to the YRR stage of the life cycle.

A great post by Rob, but I can't help but to notice that he avoided saying any particular market cap, and I'm sure that was quite deliberate due to how many different variables there are along the way to realising full value. $2.6B NPV is effectively today's value (on a fully de-risked basis) of the expected future cashflows from the project... that's right, TODAY'S value. So if we were to sell the project today, then we would only be better from an economic perspect if we received $2.6B cash. If we sold it for $2.55B, then all variables aside, we would be $0.5B better off if we took the project to production ourselves.

So if a fully de-risked value looks something like $2.6B, then spread that across the number of shares (554m from memory) and what do you get. All this shows is POTENTIAL... there are so many factors yet to be determined that it could be SIGNIFICANTLY less or more (!) than this.

Don't forget that ALL of this value is on Mt Peake alone, although the other projects are completely immaterial by comparison to Mt Peake, given their stages of exploration etc (i.e., their risked value).

Happy analysing.

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Mount Peake is a major 20-year LOM project but the Eastern Region could even be bigger......DYOR

TNG Price at posting: 19.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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