Warrick, Here is my formula for estimating gold production.
Production=Plant throughput (t) X Head Grade (g/t) X overall Recovery (%/100) X g to oz conversion (.035274) X 0.9 (error margin factor)
The table below compares PGI forecasts or actual production figures with the estimates from the formula. They are close; mostly within 1%. Note: Q2f (Q1r) means Q2 forecast from the Q1 report, etc
Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 Column 7 Column 8 0 1 2 3
So I am happier with PGI forecasts now.
PGI Q3, Q4 forecasts, page-12
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