Difference between 92 andd 82 cents., page-3

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full-tilt

937 Posts.

12/08/14

10:50

Post #: 13803786

Originally posted by GreenTint ↑

The writer implies no investment recommendation. This report contains material speculative in nature. Investors should seek professional investment advice. The writer owns shares in Arrium.

Here are some numbers showing the difference between a currency of 92 and 82 cents.

Note : using Iron ore at US$96 and grade discount (realised price) the same as 1H14 of 95.7% of the benchmark price.

Steel EBITDA change 1 cent = $10 less 25% for safely

Summary
currency at 92 cents EPS = 10
currency at 82 cents EPS = 26

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3

1 FY15 FY16

2 CFR 62% 96 96

3 AUD 0.92 0.82

4 CFR AUD 104 117

5 Tonnes 13 13

6 Grade 95.7% 95.7%

7 realised price' Sold @ 100 112

8 COGS 70 70

9 Profit / t 42

10 Iron Ore 388 546

11 Mining Cons 188 205

12 Steel 60 135

13 Recycling 10 10

14 Discountinued

15 Head Office 16 16

16 EBITDA 630 880

17

18 Iron Ore 198 198

19 Mining Cons 50 54

20 Steel 100 98

21 Recycling 10 10

22 Other 4 4

23 DA 362 364

24

25 EBIT 268 515

26 Interest 97 91

27 PBT 171 425

28 Tax Rate 15%

29 Tax 35 64

30 NPAT 137 361

31 Shares Start 1,366 1,366

32 Shares End 1,366 1,366

33 Accounting EPS 10.0 26.4

Expand

good work Green Tint.
You have demonstrated well the immense sensitivity to AUD/USD in this stock.
When we started calendar 2014 , most pundits predicted the AUD would soften into the low 80's but we are still waiting for this to happen.

FT

ARI Price at posting: 77.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held

Upvote

0 Great analysis

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	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3
1		FY15	FY16
2	CFR 62%	96	96
3	AUD	0.92	0.82
4	CFR AUD	104	117
5	Tonnes	13	13
6	Grade	95.7%	95.7%
7	realised price' Sold @	100	112
8	COGS	70	70
9	Profit / t		42
10	Iron Ore	388	546
11	Mining Cons	188	205
12	Steel	60	135
13	Recycling	10	10
14	Discountinued
15	Head Office	16	16
16	EBITDA	630	880
17
18	Iron Ore	198	198
19	Mining Cons	50	54
20	Steel	100	98
21	Recycling	10	10
22	Other	4	4
23	DA	362	364
24
25	EBIT	268	515
26	Interest	97	91
27	PBT	171	425
28	Tax Rate		15%
29	Tax	35	64
30	NPAT	137	361
31	Shares Start	1,366	1,366
32	Shares End	1,366	1,366
33	Accounting EPS	10.0	26.4

Difference between 92 andd 82 cents., page-3

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