Repeat this in each region and there is the potential for 75,000 procedures pa. globally.
I suggest this as a target achievable by 2021, and so in 2019 I suggest 36,000 patches annually for CHD making $47m gross, and $28m from hernia/ pelvic ops.
I very conservatively assume that just 1 patch is used in each procedure
On a 30x pe the net $60m revenue gives a Market Capitalisation of $1.8bn. (CSL is on a 25x pe and SRX is on 47x - so 30x seems conservative).
With 1,441,087,921 shares on issue this is $1.25 per share.
This excludes any valuation for the vaccine business which arguably could add $100-$200m to the valuation. If you compare it to the valuation of other listed dna vaccine stocks in the US, then this is being very conservative.
Looks like 15c is the new floor with solid support ahead of vaccine data release.
All open to interpretation!
Are you a retired weather forecaster
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